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Keynote speech
Source: Keynote speech (by Dr. Jeffrey T. Fong)   Publish Time: 2015-05-21 21:23   553 Views   Size:  16px  14px  12px
Keynote speech (by Dr. Jeffrey T. Fong)
Model-Assisted POD and Fatigue Life Modeling using Modern Statistical Tools

Dr. Jeffrey T. Fong, P.E.

Applied & Computational Mathematics Division
National Institute of Standards & Technology (NIST)

Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8910, U.S.A. 



We begin with a review of progress in nondestructive testing (NDT) and fatigue research since 1974 with emphasis on (1) NDT for fatigue crack measurements, (2) model-assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) for fatigue life modeling, and (3) NDT-based structural health monitoring for failure prevention.  Our review is followed by listing three fundamental problems in NDT-based fatigue modeling, namely, scale, uncertainty, and validation, and three modern statistical tools, namely, stochastic modeling, design-of-experiments-based modeling, and model-validation-based multi-scale simulation, to suggest that we now possess a “sufficient” number of tools and a body of basic knowledge to make NDT a scientific discipline and reliable technology.  Five examples are introduced to demonstrate the plausibility of a thesis that the fatigue life of an aging structure can be predicted with 99.99 % confidence and 99.99999999 % coverage if the structure is continuously monitored by built-in sensors with model- assisted NDT technology and fast on-line analysis capability.  Significance and limitations of this NDT-monitoring and on-line analysis approach to high-consequence aging asset management are presented and discussed.

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